{"id":36029,"date":"2020-01-06T10:39:20","date_gmt":"2020-01-06T00:09:20","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.solarquotes.com.au\/blog\/?p=36029"},"modified":"2020-01-07T15:18:07","modified_gmt":"2020-01-07T04:48:07","slug":"bushfire-smoke-deaths","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.solarquotes.com.au\/blog\/bushfire-smoke-deaths\/","title":{"rendered":"Australia Likely To Suffer 1,000 Or More Excess Deaths From Bushfire Smoke"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"attachment_36166\" style=\"width: 1210px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><img decoding=\"async\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-36166\" class=\"wp-image-36166 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/www.solarquotes.com.au\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/01\/bushfire-smoke.jpg\" alt=\"Deaths from Australian bushfire smoke\" width=\"1200\" height=\"628\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.solarquotes.com.au\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/01\/bushfire-smoke.jpg 1200w, https:\/\/www.solarquotes.com.au\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/01\/bushfire-smoke-300x157.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.solarquotes.com.au\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/01\/bushfire-smoke-1024x536.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/www.solarquotes.com.au\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/01\/bushfire-smoke-768x402.jpg 768w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1200px) 100vw, 1200px\" \/><p id=\"caption-attachment-36166\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Wagga Wagga yesterday. So smokey you can&#8217;t even make out a single Wagga.<\/p><\/div>\n<p>According to UQ Economics Professor, <a href=\"https:\/\/economics.uq.edu.au\/profile\/2249\/john-quiggin\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">John Quiggin<\/a>, Australia is likely to suffer 1,000 or more excess deaths due to smoke pollution from the current disastrous bushfire season. <!--more--> He <a href=\"https:\/\/insidestory.org.au\/slow-burn\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">wrote about it here<\/a>.\u00a0 If you want the details check out the article, it&#8217;s only 860 words.\u00a0 But the quick and dirty summary is:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Smoke is particulate pollution.<\/li>\n<li>Particulate levels are directly related to illness and death.<\/li>\n<li>We have measurements on how much the bushfires increased particulate levels and how many were exposed.<\/li>\n<li>Therefore, Quiggin can estimate how many excess deaths are likely to occur.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>This means the tragic true death toll of this bushfire season may be more than 50 times greater than the 22 direct deaths I&#8217;m currently aware of.<\/p>\n<h2>Definitions For Quiggin&#8217;s Highfalutin Terms<\/h2>\n<p>Despite being a Professor, Quiggin writes pretty clearly.\u00a0 However, he does sling around a few fancy words that I, being at the sub-professor level, had to look up.\u00a0 Just in case this is something you might need to do I&#8217;ll tell you what I learned to save you time and effort:<\/p>\n<p><strong>Excess deaths:<\/strong>\u00a0 This is pretty straight forward.\u00a0 It just means more people dying than you&#8217;d otherwise expect.\u00a0 The <a href=\"https:\/\/www.who.int\/hac\/about\/definitions\/en\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">World Health Organization&#8217;s glossary<\/a> defines it as:<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-36117 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/www.solarquotes.com.au\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/01\/excess.gif\" alt=\"Excess mortality definition\" width=\"647\" height=\"179\" \/><\/p>\n<p><strong>Premature mortality:<\/strong>\u00a0If you are wondering what mortality is\u00a0I went and got the Australian definition of premature mortality from <a href=\"https:\/\/www.aihw.gov.au\/getmedia\/2cea81f2-7de5-4307-85b7-9f84cd12981c\/ah16-3-2-premature-mortality.pdf.aspx\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">this report<\/a> by the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare.\u00a0 Basically, if someone dies under the age of 75 it is a premature death or premature mortality:<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-36119 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/www.solarquotes.com.au\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/01\/prematuremortality.gif\" alt=\"Premature mortality definition\" width=\"757\" height=\"382\" \/><\/p>\n<p>I also looked up the Finnish definition of premature death for the benefit of my boss, Finn, and it is a state that occurs whenever they don&#8217;t get their morning <a href=\"https:\/\/www.baristainstitute.com\/blog\/jori-korhonen\/september-2018\/finnish-coffee-culture-one-kind\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">litre of coffee<\/a>.<\/p>\n<h2>Probably Not Lies Or Damned Lies<\/h2>\n<p>What isn&#8217;t given by Quiggin in the article is an estimate of the total years of life lost.\u00a0I would expect the excess deaths to be concentrated among the elderly, those in poor health, smokers, etc.<\/p>\n<p>Because it&#8217;s the weak who usually die from air pollution, maybe they would have died soon anyway and so not many years of life in total will be lost from the expected 1,000+ excess deaths.\u00a0 But I&#8217;m not sure it works that way.\u00a0 Granny might have a health crisis when she&#8217;s 70 and be so close to Death&#8217;s door he trips over her on his way to a <a href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Loy_Yang_Power_Station\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Loy Yang Power Station<\/a> board meeting, but if she pulls through she might be good for another 10 years.\u00a0 And 10 years is a long time compared to no more time.<\/p>\n<p>I suspect each excess death represents multiple lost years and the bushfire smoke pollution will result in at least several thousand years of Australian lives lost.\u00a0 But I don&#8217;t actually know.\u00a0 This is just my guess.\u00a0 I&#8217;m not an epidemiologist.\u00a0 I need to kill a few more people before I qualify for my honorary degree in that.<\/p>\n<h2>I Think Quiggin Is On The Ball<\/h2>\n<p>Quiggin is an Economics Professor at the University of Queensland and he explains his reasoning pretty well, so I think he &#8212; regrettably &#8212; isn&#8217;t likely to be wrong in his estimate of excess deaths.\u00a0 But the main reason I trust him is not because of his qualifications or because he wrote <a href=\"https:\/\/press.princeton.edu\/books\/paperback\/9780691154541\/zombie-economics\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">a book on zombies<\/a>.\u00a0 It&#8217;s because he&#8217;s an awesome Ned Kelly cosplayer:<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-36126 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/www.solarquotes.com.au\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/01\/jquiggin.jpg\" alt=\"Professor John Quiggin\" width=\"318\" height=\"201\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.solarquotes.com.au\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/01\/jquiggin.jpg 318w, https:\/\/www.solarquotes.com.au\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/01\/jquiggin-300x190.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 318px) 100vw, 318px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Unfortunately, I&#8217;ve heard he&#8217;s shaved and apparently the Quigster now looks like this:<\/p>\n<div id=\"attachment_36127\" style=\"width: 558px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><img decoding=\"async\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-36127\" class=\"wp-image-36127 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/www.solarquotes.com.au\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/01\/thequigster.jpg\" alt=\"UQ Economics Professor, John Quiggin\" width=\"548\" height=\"460\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.solarquotes.com.au\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/01\/thequigster.jpg 548w, https:\/\/www.solarquotes.com.au\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/01\/thequigster-300x252.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 548px) 100vw, 548px\" \/><p id=\"caption-attachment-36127\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Image: Australian National Univesity<\/p><\/div>\n<p>As his power remains undiminished, I can only assume he kept his beard after shaving it off.\u00a0 My guess is he keeps it in a glass case and occasionally takes it out and strokes it when in need of deep economic insights.<\/p>\n<p>Even without the beard he doesn&#8217;t look too shabby for someone in his 60s.\u00a0 Apparently, he still does triathlons &#8211; or dieathlons, as I call them &#8212; so he&#8217;s clearly just as nutty about exercise as my boss.\u00a0 If only he was still bearded.\u00a0 Then he&#8217;d be like an unstoppable combination of my facial hair and Finn&#8217;s endurance.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Serious note:<\/strong> If you or your family are exposed to bushfire smoke &#8211; limit your exposure as much as possible. When exposed wear a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bunnings.com.au\/protector-respirator-kit_p5822368\">properly fitted P2 mask<\/a>. To improve the air quality in your home &#8211; <a href=\"https:\/\/www.appliancesonline.com.au\/product\/ionmax-ion420-breeze-air-purifier\">invest in an air purifier<\/a> and please <a href=\"https:\/\/www.choice.com.au\/home-and-living\/cooling\/air-purifiers\/articles\/keeping-smoke-and-pollutants-out-of-your-home\">read this excellent article by Choice<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>According to UQ Economics Professor, John Quiggin, Australia is likely to suffer 1,000 or more excess deaths due to smoke pollution from the current disastrous bushfire season.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":10,"featured_media":36166,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[507],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-36029","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-solar-and-the-environment","entry"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v28.5 (Yoast SEO v28.5) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Australia Likely To See 1,000 Or More Excess Deaths From Bushfire Smoke<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Bushfire smoke means the tragic, true death toll of this bushfire season may be more than 50 times greater than the 22 direct deaths currently reported.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" 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