{"id":39506,"date":"2020-05-07T13:33:30","date_gmt":"2020-05-07T03:03:30","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.solarquotes.com.au\/blog\/?p=39506"},"modified":"2020-05-07T13:33:30","modified_gmt":"2020-05-07T03:03:30","slug":"climate-in-2070","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.solarquotes.com.au\/blog\/climate-in-2070\/","title":{"rendered":"National Geographic Gives You A Peek At Your Hometown’s Climate – In 2070"},"content":{"rendered":"
\"Your

What will your local climate be like in 2070?<\/p><\/div>\n

Okay, this is cool: National Geographic\u2019s latest contribution to climate change education is to try and give people a way to understand what their home cities will be like 50 years from now, if climate change follows the RCP 8.5 scenario.<\/p>\n

Your Climate, Changed<\/em><\/a> is a visualisation-and-forecast tool that brings together data from researchers all over the world: the University of Maryland\u2019s Matthew Fitzpatrick, Hylke Beck of Princeton Climate Analytics, Tim McVicar of CSIRO Land and Water and the ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes, the Climate Impact Lab, and the company Verisk Maplecroft, publisher of the Climate Change Vulnerability Index.<\/p>\n

It should be noted that \u201cRCP 8.5\u201d (RCP stands for Representative Concentration Pathways) is a pessimistic scenario assuming minimal efforts to change carbon emissions, compared to \u201cbusiness as usual\u201d. (Carbon Brief has an explainer about RCP 8.5 here<\/a>, calling it a high-baseline scenario \u201crepresenting the 90th percentile of no-policy baseline scenarios available at the time\u201d.)<\/p>\n

CSIRO posted this blog<\/a> by Kate Cranney, which gives a great overview of the\u00a0Your Climate, Changed<\/em> project.<\/p>\n

National Geographic presents 2,500 cities around the world in Your Climate, Changed<\/em>, and along with explaining how cities would \u201cfeel\u201d after 50 years of business as usual, the project also offers users \u201ccity analogues\u201d – which city in the world most closely matches the trajectory of \u201cyour\u201d city in 2020? For example, to quote National Geographic,<\/p>\n

\u201cBy the 2070s, Boston, Massachusetts, will feel more like Bardwell, Kentucky, does today. During summers, the maximum temperatures will be 5\u00b0C hotter on average and 49 mm more rain will fall\u201d.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

And some places, like Hanoi, Vietnam, will experience conditions entirely new on Earth – they have no 2070 analog to their 2020 climate. A total of 90 cities fall into this dire category.<\/p>\n

If you live in Sydney, Your Climate, Changed<\/em> suggests you get used to the climate in Monto, Queensland – a small town 120 km or so west of Bundaberg. Sydney winter days in 2070 are more likely to be 21\u00b0C on average, compared to today\u2019s 18\u00b0C – but before you say \u201cthat doesn\u2019t sound too bad\u201d, the summer average will be 30\u00b0C rather than 26\u00b0C (you won\u2019t like those really hot days with an extra 4\u00b0C, and business as usual will give Sydney at least two extra summer days of extreme heat).<\/p>\n

CSIRO\u2019s Kate Cranney added a couple of other example cities in her blog post:<\/p>\n

\u201cIn 50 years, Melbourne may feel similar to northern parts of Adelaide with much hotter summers. By 2070, Townsville in northern Queensland is forecast to shift from a temperate climate zone to a tropical savannah. The research predicts the number of days in the year over 35\u00b0C might increase dramatically in Townsville from five days in 2005 to 72 days in 2080.\u201d<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Meanwhile Perth, Cranney writes, will get a stunning 42 extra days of extreme heat.<\/p>\n

CSIRO’s Tim McVicar On Why High Resolution Is Important<\/h2>\n

Solar Quotes spoke with CSIRO\u2019s Tim McVicar, who worked with lead author Hylke Beck and others on the climate classification data used by National Geographic. The group\u2019s work, published in October 2018, updated the the K\u00f6ppen-Geiger climate classification maps to give them a 1km grid (if you\u2019re interested, the maps are here<\/a>).<\/p>\n

McVicar and Beck started working with National Geographic in February this year, when the publisher asked them to help review how it had used the K\u00f6ppen-Geiger model for Your Climate, Changed<\/em>.<\/p>\n

A 1km grid is important for hydrological, McVicar told us, because it does a better job of capturing mountainous areas.<\/p>\n

\u201cThey\u2019re important for generating stream flow,\u201d McVicar said, and the 1km grid \u201chas a lot more granularity in those important water-yeilding mountainous areas.\u201d<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

He told us this covers an awful lot of variation: the models need to have the resolution to capture things like the effect of prevailing winds on precipitation (the rainshadow east of Cooma in NSW is a good example), and the way very high elevation differences affect rainfall.<\/p>\n

\u201cIf you go from the Indo-Ganges plain in Indi to the rim of the Tibetan plateau – at lower elevations, rainfall increases as you ascend, and then you get to what people call \u2018rain-out zones\u2019\u201d.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

While Your Climate, Changed<\/em> focuses on predicting the future, McVicar said fine-grained models that present a continuous grid are important to understanding the present, because it helps fill in the blanks between the otherwise isolated points where meteorological data is collected.<\/p>\n

McVicar noted that his and Beck\u2019s hydrological modelling did not, however, feed into the National Geographic temperature predictions – but those, interestingly, also illustrate why granular models are important.<\/p>\n

He said the Your Climate, Changed<\/em> data for Sydney, Australia has received some negative comments for asserting that Sydney currently averages two summer days over 35\u00b0C annually.<\/p>\n

Surely that\u2019s a mistake?<\/p>\n

Not necessarily. McVicar pointed out that the GCM (general circulation model) grid used behind climatologists\u2019 temperature modelling is based on a 1\u00b0 grid – 100 x 100 km squares. A grid that size will have very diverse environments within Sydney – as well as the CBD and dormitory suburbs, the grid takes in forest and ocean areas.<\/p>\n

\u201cHow representative that grid cell is, compared to the climate you experience as Joe Public, is a bit different\u201d, he said.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Okay, this is cool: National Geographic\u2019s latest contribution to climate change education is to try and give people a way to understand what their home cities will be like 50 years from now, if climate change follows the RCP 8.5 scenario.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":23,"featured_media":39603,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[507],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-39506","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-solar-and-the-environment","entry"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nNational Geographic Reveals Your Hometown's Climate In 2070<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"National Geographic\u2019s latest contribution is to show what your home city will be like 50 years from now, if climate change follows the RCP 8.5 scenario.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.solarquotes.com.au\/blog\/climate-in-2070\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"National Geographic Gives You A Peek At Your Hometown's Climate - 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When not writing for us, he runs a solar-powered off-grid eco-resort in NSW\u2019s blue mountains. Read Richard's full bio.","url":"https:\/\/www.solarquotes.com.au\/blog\/author\/rchirgwin\/"}]}},"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/www.solarquotes.com.au\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/climate-changed.jpg","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p2FF2s-ahc","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":60625,"url":"https:\/\/www.solarquotes.com.au\/blog\/ipcc-climate-report-mb2421\/","url_meta":{"origin":39506,"position":0},"title":"IPCC: Humanity At A Crossroads On Emissions","author":"Michael Bloch","date":"April 5, 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"Without immediate and deep emissions reductions across the board, limiting global warming to 1.5\u00b0C will be beyond humanity's reach says a new IPCC report. The latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's Working Group III (WG III) report released last night indicates it's a \"now or never\" moment if global warming\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "General Solar & Storage News"","block_context":{"text":"General Solar & Storage News","link":"https:\/\/www.solarquotes.com.au\/blog\/category\/solar-battery-news\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"IPCC climate report","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.solarquotes.com.au\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/04\/ipcc-climate-report.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.solarquotes.com.au\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/04\/ipcc-climate-report.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.solarquotes.com.au\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/04\/ipcc-climate-report.jpg?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.solarquotes.com.au\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/04\/ipcc-climate-report.jpg?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.solarquotes.com.au\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/04\/ipcc-climate-report.jpg?resize=1050%2C600&ssl=1 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":35771,"url":"https:\/\/www.solarquotes.com.au\/blog\/national-climate-disaster-fund-mb1335\/","url_meta":{"origin":39506,"position":1},"title":"Climate Disaster Fund Paid For By Fossil Fuel Producers Proposed","author":"Michael Bloch","date":"December 18, 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"It's time fossil fuel producers in Australia started paying for some of the damages associated with climate change says The Australia Institute. Released this morning, TAI's proposed National Climate Disaster Fund (NCDF) would be funded through a $1 per tonne of carbon emissions levy on coal, gas and oil production\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "General Solar & Storage News"","block_context":{"text":"General Solar & Storage News","link":"https:\/\/www.solarquotes.com.au\/blog\/category\/solar-battery-news\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"National Climate Disaster Fund - TAI","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.solarquotes.com.au\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/12\/coal-climate-fund.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.solarquotes.com.au\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/12\/coal-climate-fund.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.solarquotes.com.au\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/12\/coal-climate-fund.jpg?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.solarquotes.com.au\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/12\/coal-climate-fund.jpg?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.solarquotes.com.au\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/12\/coal-climate-fund.jpg?resize=1050%2C600&ssl=1 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":11068,"url":"https:\/\/www.solarquotes.com.au\/blog\/climate-council-renewable-energy-mb0024\/","url_meta":{"origin":39506,"position":2},"title":"Climate Council : 50% Renewables By 2030, End Fossil Fuel Subsidies","author":"Michael Bloch","date":"May 8, 2017","format":false,"excerpt":"The Climate Council\u2019s submission to the Federal Government's 2017 Climate Policy Review recommends a national transition plan for Australia\u2019s electricity system that will result in at least 50% renewables by 2030. Australia is the 16th largest emitter of carbon dioxide in the world, generating more emissions than 180 other countries.\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "General Solar & Storage News"","block_context":{"text":"General Solar & Storage News","link":"https:\/\/www.solarquotes.com.au\/blog\/category\/solar-battery-news\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"End fossil fuel subsidies","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.solarquotes.com.au\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/05\/fossil-fuels-renewables-australia.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.solarquotes.com.au\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/05\/fossil-fuels-renewables-australia.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.solarquotes.com.au\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/05\/fossil-fuels-renewables-australia.jpg?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":36503,"url":"https:\/\/www.solarquotes.com.au\/blog\/climate-attitudes-australia-mb1369\/","url_meta":{"origin":39506,"position":3},"title":"Climate Change Concerns Climb In Australia","author":"Michael Bloch","date":"January 16, 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"The level of concern among Australians regarding climate change and its impacts has increased significantly due to the nation's bushfire crisis. Climate of the Nation is a long running-survey commissioned by The Australia Institute (TAI), gauging attitudes in the community on the issue of climate change. The latest related poll\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "General Solar & Storage News"","block_context":{"text":"General Solar & Storage News","link":"https:\/\/www.solarquotes.com.au\/blog\/category\/solar-battery-news\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Climate change attitudes in Australia","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.solarquotes.com.au\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/01\/climate-australia-attitude.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.solarquotes.com.au\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/01\/climate-australia-attitude.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.solarquotes.com.au\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/01\/climate-australia-attitude.jpg?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.solarquotes.com.au\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/01\/climate-australia-attitude.jpg?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.solarquotes.com.au\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/01\/climate-australia-attitude.jpg?resize=1050%2C600&ssl=1 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":28705,"url":"https:\/\/www.solarquotes.com.au\/blog\/school-strike-climate-nsw-mb0975\/","url_meta":{"origin":39506,"position":4},"title":"Daley Vs. Berejiklian On School Strike 4 Climate Protests","author":"Michael Bloch","date":"March 14, 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"NSW Labor leader Michael Daley has voiced his support for Friday's school student climate action strikers, while Premier Gladys Berejiklian says the kids should stay in class. Tomorrow will see thousands of Australian students ditching school to call on politicians to say no to all new fossil fuel projects -\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "General Solar & Storage News"","block_context":{"text":"General Solar & Storage News","link":"https:\/\/www.solarquotes.com.au\/blog\/category\/solar-battery-news\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"School strike for climate change action","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.solarquotes.com.au\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/03\/school-strike-climate.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.solarquotes.com.au\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/03\/school-strike-climate.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.solarquotes.com.au\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/03\/school-strike-climate.jpg?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.solarquotes.com.au\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/03\/school-strike-climate.jpg?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.solarquotes.com.au\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/03\/school-strike-climate.jpg?resize=1050%2C600&ssl=1 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":64081,"url":"https:\/\/www.solarquotes.com.au\/blog\/greens-labor-climate-mb2580\/","url_meta":{"origin":39506,"position":5},"title":"Greens To Support “Dutton-Proofed” Labor Climate Bill","author":"Michael Bloch","date":"August 4, 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"Australian Greens Leader Adam Bandt says his party will now support Labor's Climate Change Bill 2022 in the House of Representatives and the Senate. Speaking at the National Press Club yesterday, Mr. Bandt said backing of the bill is now doable given changes that have been negotiated.\u00a0The Greens notes those\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "General Solar & Storage News"","block_context":{"text":"General Solar & Storage News","link":"https:\/\/www.solarquotes.com.au\/blog\/category\/solar-battery-news\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Climate Change Bill 2022","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.solarquotes.com.au\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/labor-greens-climate.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.solarquotes.com.au\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/labor-greens-climate.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.solarquotes.com.au\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/labor-greens-climate.jpg?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.solarquotes.com.au\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/labor-greens-climate.jpg?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.solarquotes.com.au\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/labor-greens-climate.jpg?resize=1050%2C600&ssl=1 3x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.solarquotes.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/39506","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.solarquotes.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.solarquotes.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.solarquotes.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/23"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.solarquotes.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=39506"}],"version-history":[{"count":5,"href":"https:\/\/www.solarquotes.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/39506\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":39609,"href":"https:\/\/www.solarquotes.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/39506\/revisions\/39609"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.solarquotes.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/39603"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.solarquotes.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=39506"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.solarquotes.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=39506"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.solarquotes.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=39506"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}