{"id":45271,"date":"2020-12-28T13:40:13","date_gmt":"2020-12-28T03:10:13","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.solarquotes.com.au\/blog\/?p=45271"},"modified":"2024-01-25T10:56:59","modified_gmt":"2024-01-25T01:26:59","slug":"2020-in-review","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.solarquotes.com.au\/blog\/2020-in-review\/","title":{"rendered":"2020 In Review: Fossil Fuel Industry Running On Fumes"},"content":{"rendered":"\r\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-46083 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/www.solarquotes.com.au\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/12\/2020-fuel.jpg\" alt=\"2020 in review - fossil fuels and renewable energy\" width=\"1200\" height=\"628\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.solarquotes.com.au\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/12\/2020-fuel.jpg 1200w, https:\/\/www.solarquotes.com.au\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/12\/2020-fuel-300x157.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.solarquotes.com.au\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/12\/2020-fuel-1024x536.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/www.solarquotes.com.au\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/12\/2020-fuel-768x402.jpg 768w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1200px) 100vw, 1200px\" \/><\/p>\r\n<p>The year 2020 was wonderful except for one little thing, and it&#8217;s hard to get littler than a virus.\u00a0 Thank god Australia got off lightly compared to most.\u00a0 <!--more--><\/p>\r\n<p>If you&#8217;d like to give credit to those who saved our bacon rather than upper management, you can thank the medical professionals. \u00a0They refused to let the Government make a dog&#8217;s breakfast of our pandemic response.\u00a0<\/p>\r\n<p>I know it has become almost mandatory to deride 2020 as an <em>annus horribilis<\/em>, but if you join me in looking on the bright side of things, I&#8217;ll show you how to find joy in this horrible annus.\u00a0 So please don your gay apparel &#8212; which in this case should be a festively themed facemask &#8212; and join me in clearing coronavirus contaminated corrosion from what I know appears to be the most lacklustre year since disco died. \u00a0<\/p>\r\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-46078 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/www.solarquotes.com.au\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/12\/festive-mask.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"1017\" height=\"678\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.solarquotes.com.au\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/12\/festive-mask.jpg 1017w, https:\/\/www.solarquotes.com.au\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/12\/festive-mask-300x200.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.solarquotes.com.au\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/12\/festive-mask-768x512.jpg 768w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1017px) 100vw, 1017px\" \/><\/p>\r\n<h2>Under The Dross, 2020 Contained Brilliance That&#8217;s Ready To Shine Through.\u00a0<\/h2>\r\n<p>The baddest of bad news for this year has taken many good\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=xjWT--Ql2mM\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer nofollow\">people<\/a> from us. \u00a0The goodest of good news is there&#8217;s an excellent chance we won&#8217;t die in the future.\u00a0 And by we, I mean humanity.\u00a0 No &#8211; immortality is not yet available.\u00a0 Things are looking up, but not that far up.<\/p>\r\n<h2>Renewables are undeniably cheaper.<\/h2>\r\n<p>The good news is renewable energy &#8212; especially solar power &#8212; is now cheaper than fossil fuels.\u00a0 And when I say it&#8217;s cheaper, I don&#8217;t just mean:<\/p>\r\n<ul>\r\n<li>When including the health and environmental costs of fossil fuels.<\/li>\r\n<li>When the sun shines, or the wind blows.<\/li>\r\n<li>When deciding between building new fossil fuel capacity or new renewable capacity.<\/li>\r\n<\/ul>\r\n<p>I&#8217;m saying that a <a href=\"https:\/\/reneweconomy.com.au\/wind-solar-and-storage-still-cheapest-by-far-latest-csiro-gencost-report-says-34929\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">combination<\/a> of solar and wind generation and energy storage is now cheap enough to drive existing, paid off, fossil fuel power stations out of business.\u00a0 It&#8217;s not just cheaper, it&#8217;s so much cheaper there is no escape from the revelation, and soon only fools and the mad will deny it.\u00a0<\/p>\r\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-46079 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/www.solarquotes.com.au\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/12\/craigy-boy.jpg\" alt=\"Craig Kelly\" width=\"981\" height=\"582\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.solarquotes.com.au\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/12\/craigy-boy.jpg 981w, https:\/\/www.solarquotes.com.au\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/12\/craigy-boy-300x178.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.solarquotes.com.au\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/12\/craigy-boy-768x456.jpg 768w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 981px) 100vw, 981px\" \/><\/p>\r\n<p>I&#8217;m talking about large-scale renewables and energy storage here.\u00a0 Rooftop solar in Australia started paying for itself years ago, although home batteries still don&#8217;t pay for themselves under normal circumstances.\u00a0<\/p>\r\n<p>Strangely, the rest of the world has mostly ignored Australia&#8217;s success with rooftop solar just as they ignored our handling of the Global Financial Crisis, our raising of worker incomes in an English speaking country, and Aussies mostly not dying from a plague.\u00a0<\/p>\r\n<p>But giant wind farms, big solar and big batteries are big business and can no longer be ignored. \u00a0<\/p>\r\n<p>Much to my chagrin<sup class='endnote'><a href='https:\/\/www.solarquotes.com.au\/blog\/2020-in-review\/#en-45271-1' id='enref-45271-1' onclick='return hhEndnotes_show(45271)'>1<\/a><\/sup>, this doesn&#8217;t mean we can run up to our remaining coal power stations, give them a stiff kick and watch as they crumble into dust.\u00a0 It won&#8217;t be quite that easy.\u00a0 But a relatively rapid demise of coal power followed by gas is certain. \u00a0<\/p>\r\n<p><div class=\"youtube-wrapper\"><iframe title=\"It&#039;s Good News Week - Hedgehoppers Anonymus ( Video Remix )\" width=\"500\" height=\"281\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/RyE0NedXWpM?feature=oembed\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share\" referrerpolicy=\"strict-origin-when-cross-origin\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe><\/div><\/p>\r\n<p>But the impending demise of fossil fuel generation isn&#8217;t the only good news of the year.<\/p>\r\n<h2>One Year From New Virus To New Vaccine<\/h2>\r\n<p>On December 8th 2019 a resident of Wuhan rocked up to hospital with a disease resembling pneumonia.\u00a0 Just 33 days later, Chinese researchers had determined the genetic sequence of a previously unknown <a href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Severe_acute_respiratory_syndrome_coronavirus_2\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">coronavirus<\/a> and published it on the internet to benefit medical experts worldwide.\u00a0 On the 8th of December 2020, one year after the first known hospitalization for <a href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Coronavirus_disease_2019\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">COVID-19<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bbc.com\/news\/uk-55227325\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">the UK began to vaccinate the most vulnerable<\/a>.\u00a0 Multiple effective vaccines will soon be available<sup class='endnote'><a href='https:\/\/www.solarquotes.com.au\/blog\/2020-in-review\/#en-45271-2' id='enref-45271-2' onclick='return hhEndnotes_show(45271)'>2<\/a><\/sup>.<\/span> While supplies are limited now, billions of doses will be produced before the end of 2021.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\r\n<p>While I wasn&#8217;t surprised by the vaccine development speed, this was only because I knew how far humanity had progressed with this sort of thing.\u00a0 If COVID-19 had cropped up 10 years ago, everything would be more difficult, and millions would have been cooped up in Melbourne with crap internet.\u00a0 If the virus showed up 50 years ago then&#8230; well, it probably would have burned out before spreading far.\u00a0 The roads around Wuhan were absolute rubbish back then, and the virus may never have infected enough humans to mutate into its now highly transmissible form. \u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\r\n<p>When around two-thirds of Australians are immunized, the country may become pandemic proof.\u00a0 But we will likely need to immunize more than that to be on the safe side<sup class='endnote'><a href='https:\/\/www.solarquotes.com.au\/blog\/2020-in-review\/#en-45271-3' id='enref-45271-3' onclick='return hhEndnotes_show(45271)'>3<\/a><\/sup> and because &#8220;pandemic proof&#8221; is not the same as &#8220;nobody gets sick&#8221;.<sup class='endnote'><a href='https:\/\/www.solarquotes.com.au\/blog\/2020-in-review\/#en-45271-4' id='enref-45271-4' onclick='return hhEndnotes_show(45271)'>4<\/a><\/sup><\/p>\r\n<div id=\"attachment_45952\" style=\"width: 607px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><img decoding=\"async\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-45952\" class=\"wp-image-45952 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/www.solarquotes.com.au\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/12\/statistics.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"597\" height=\"773\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.solarquotes.com.au\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/12\/statistics.png 597w, https:\/\/www.solarquotes.com.au\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/12\/statistics-232x300.png 232w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 597px) 100vw, 597px\" \/><p id=\"caption-attachment-45952\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">This XKCD comic can be found <a href=\"https:\/\/xkcd.com\/2400\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">here<\/a>. There are other pandemic related ones <a href=\"https:\/\/xkcd.com\/2287\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">here<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/xkcd.com\/2275\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">here<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/xkcd.com\/2281\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">here<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/xkcd.com\/2396\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">here<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/xkcd.com\/2397\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">here<\/a>&#8230;<\/p><\/div>\r\n<h2>CO2 Emissions Have Passed Their Peak<\/h2>\r\n<p>Global greenhouse gas emissions peaked last year and fell 6.5% in 2020 year thanks to the pandemic:<\/p>\r\n<div id=\"attachment_45957\" style=\"width: 1010px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><img decoding=\"async\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-45957\" class=\"wp-image-45957 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/www.solarquotes.com.au\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/12\/carbon_budget_graph.jpg\" alt=\"2020 fossil fuel emissions decrease\" width=\"1000\" height=\"338\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.solarquotes.com.au\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/12\/carbon_budget_graph.jpg 1000w, https:\/\/www.solarquotes.com.au\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/12\/carbon_budget_graph-300x101.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.solarquotes.com.au\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/12\/carbon_budget_graph-768x260.jpg 768w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1000px) 100vw, 1000px\" \/><p id=\"caption-attachment-45957\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">This says about a 7% drop in CO2 emissions, but they are rounding up.\u00a0 Source: Global Carbon Project<\/p><\/div>\r\n<p>Most of this decline is temporary and will disappear once the world economy picks up &#8211; but not all of it.\u00a0 I am confident &#8212; as in I&#8217;m willing to bet money &#8212; that world CO2 emissions have passed their peak and will never again reach the level they were in 2019.\u00a0 Renewable energy is stomping the fossil fuel competition and the only car manufacturer to turn a profit this year has been Tesla.\u00a0 I&#8217;ve tried a few electric vehicles, and I promise you, they are poised to take the world by storm.<\/p>\r\n<div id=\"attachment_45965\" style=\"width: 456px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><img decoding=\"async\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-45965\" class=\"size-full wp-image-45965\" src=\"https:\/\/www.solarquotes.com.au\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/12\/electricalstorm.gif\" alt=\"\" width=\"446\" height=\"250\" \/><p id=\"caption-attachment-45965\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">By <em>electrical<\/em> storm.<\/p><\/div>\r\n<h2>A Long Way To Go On Emissions<\/h2>\r\n<p>While passing peak emissions is necessary to keep even one icecap intact, it does mean we&#8217;ve only stopped increasing the rate we&#8217;re making things worse.\u00a0 We still have to get our emissions down to a safe level, which at the moment looks like it would be a negative amount<sup class='endnote'><a href='https:\/\/www.solarquotes.com.au\/blog\/2020-in-review\/#en-45271-5' id='enref-45271-5' onclick='return hhEndnotes_show(45271)'>5<\/a><\/sup>.<\/p>\r\n<p>As you can see from the readings below taken at the <a href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Mauna_Loa_Observatory\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Mauna Loa Observatory<\/a> in Hawaii<sup class='endnote'><a href='https:\/\/www.solarquotes.com.au\/blog\/2020-in-review\/#en-45271-6' id='enref-45271-6' onclick='return hhEndnotes_show(45271)'>6<\/a><\/sup> atmospheric CO2 levels rose this year much the same as they did in the previous five:<\/p>\r\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-45970 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/www.solarquotes.com.au\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/12\/hawaii_co2.jpg\" alt=\"Mauna Loa Observatory carbon dioxide measurements\" width=\"1000\" height=\"843\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.solarquotes.com.au\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/12\/hawaii_co2.jpg 1000w, https:\/\/www.solarquotes.com.au\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/12\/hawaii_co2-300x253.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.solarquotes.com.au\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/12\/hawaii_co2-768x647.jpg 768w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1000px) 100vw, 1000px\" \/><\/p>\r\n<p>We need to cut civilization&#8217;s emissions by at least 80% to stabilize the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere and melt the icecaps more slowly.\u00a0 If we cut emissions by a net 100%, it will allow the oceans and other carbon sinks to draw down a modest portion of the CO2 in the air and keep us from cooking our gooses &#8212; as well as all other non-mutant waterfowl. \u00a0<\/p>\r\n<p>So while we still have a long way to go, without the recent emissions downturn this November&#8217;s figure for atmospheric CO2 parts per million would be even worse:<\/p>\r\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-45972 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/www.solarquotes.com.au\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/12\/hawaii_nov_co2.png\" alt=\"Atmospheric carbon dioxide levels in November 2020\" width=\"602\" height=\"201\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.solarquotes.com.au\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/12\/hawaii_nov_co2.png 602w, https:\/\/www.solarquotes.com.au\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/12\/hawaii_nov_co2-300x100.png 300w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 602px) 100vw, 602px\" \/><\/p>\r\n<h2>Renewable Price Plunge<\/h2>\r\n<p>The cost of solar has fallen through the floor, and if it keeps going, it may need to be reclassified as geothermal energy as it burrows through the earth&#8217;s crust.\u00a0 This graph from <a href=\"https:\/\/ourworldindata.org\/cheap-renewables-growth\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Our World in Data<\/a> shows the cost of solar energy dropping 89% over 10 years and onshore wind energy by 70%:<\/p>\r\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-45975 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/www.solarquotes.com.au\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/12\/pricefall.jpg\" alt=\"The price of electricity from new power plants\" width=\"992\" height=\"1529\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.solarquotes.com.au\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/12\/pricefall.jpg 992w, https:\/\/www.solarquotes.com.au\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/12\/pricefall-195x300.jpg 195w, https:\/\/www.solarquotes.com.au\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/12\/pricefall-664x1024.jpg 664w, https:\/\/www.solarquotes.com.au\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/12\/pricefall-768x1184.jpg 768w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 992px) 100vw, 992px\" \/><\/p>\r\n<p>But I&#8217;m afraid this graph is misleading because the figures don&#8217;t represent real-world prices.\u00a0 In reality, the cost of wind and solar energy is considerably less.\u00a0 The information&#8217;s off because it uses Lazard&#8217;s estimates for the levelized cost of energy that assume an interest rate of 8%<sup class='endnote'><a href='https:\/\/www.solarquotes.com.au\/blog\/2020-in-review\/#en-45271-7' id='enref-45271-7' onclick='return hhEndnotes_show(45271)'>7<\/a><\/sup>.\u00a0 While this made sense decades ago, these days a 0% interest rate would be more accurate. \u00a0The current rock bottom cost of capital makes wind and solar energy generation cheaper as their cost is mostly capital.<sup class='endnote'><a href='https:\/\/www.solarquotes.com.au\/blog\/2020-in-review\/#en-45271-8' id='enref-45271-8' onclick='return hhEndnotes_show(45271)'>8<\/a><\/sup>\u00a0 While interest rates may rise after the pandemic, they&#8217;re not likely to rise by much.\u00a0 The general trend has been downwards for over 30 years now, and I don&#8217;t expect any major change in a hurry.<\/p>\r\n<div id=\"attachment_45994\" style=\"width: 655px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><img decoding=\"async\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-45994\" class=\"wp-image-45994 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/www.solarquotes.com.au\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/12\/2yearbondyield.gif\" alt=\"Australian interest rates - bond yields\" width=\"645\" height=\"466\" \/><p id=\"caption-attachment-45994\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">I added the bit in red to make the graph more up to date.<\/p><\/div>\r\n<p>Interest rates ranging from low to nearly non-existent have caused solar to be bid in at impressively low prices worldwide.\u00a0 Here&#8217;s what some solar projects are being paid to go ahead in Australian cents per kilowatt-hour at today&#8217;s exchange rate<sup class='endnote'><a href='https:\/\/www.solarquotes.com.au\/blog\/2020-in-review\/#en-45271-9' id='enref-45271-9' onclick='return hhEndnotes_show(45271)'>9<\/a><\/sup>:<\/p>\r\n<ul>\r\n<li>Portugal:\u00a0 <a href=\"https:\/\/reneweconomy.com.au\/portugal-government-confirms-record-low-solar-energy-price-29624\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">1.8 cents per kilowatt-hour<\/a><\/li>\r\n<li>United Arab Emirates (UAE):\u00a0 <a href=\"https:\/\/reneweconomy.com.au\/worlds-biggest-solar-farm-will-also-be-the-cheapest-with-stunning-low-bid-95804\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">1.8 cents per kilowatt-hour<\/a><\/li>\r\n<li>New Mexico, USA:\u00a0 <a href=\"https:\/\/pv-magazine-usa.com\/2020\/05\/28\/record-low-solar-ppas-in-the-southwest-means-carbon-capture-is-not-going-to-save-coal-plants\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">2 cents per kilowatt-hour<\/a><\/li>\r\n<li>Saudi Arabia <a href=\"https:\/\/www.pv-tech.org\/news\/bids-of-us0.0162-kwh-emerge-as-saudi-arabia-shortlists-firms-for-1.47gw-sol\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">2.1 cents per kilowatt-hour<\/a><\/li>\r\n<li>Brazil:\u00a0 <a href=\"https:\/\/www.pv-magazine.com\/2019\/07\/01\/brazil-a-4-auction-signs-211-mw-of-solar-for-record-low-price-of-0-0175-kwh\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">2.3 cents per kilowatt-hour<\/a><\/li>\r\n<li>Mexico:\u00a0 <a href=\"https:\/\/electrek.co\/2017\/11\/16\/cheapest-electricity-on-the-planet-mexican-solar-power\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">2.6 cents per kilowatt-hour<\/a><\/li>\r\n<li>Los Angeles, USA:\u00a0 <a href=\"https:\/\/pv-magazine-usa.com\/2019\/06\/28\/los-angeles-seeks-record-setting-solar-power-price-under-2%c2%a2-kwh\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">2.6 cents per kilowatt-hour<\/a><\/li>\r\n<li>India:\u00a0 <a href=\"https:\/\/reneweconomy.com.au\/india-achieves-record-low-price-for-large-scale-solar-plant-51986\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">3.6 cents per kilowatt-hour<\/a><\/li>\r\n<\/ul>\r\n<p>Because even the lowest cost, fully paid off, coal power stations generally need to receive an average at least 3 cents per kilowatt-hour to stay in business, the falling cost of solar hardware combined with low-interest rates<sup class='endnote'><a href='https:\/\/www.solarquotes.com.au\/blog\/2020-in-review\/#en-45271-10' id='enref-45271-10' onclick='return hhEndnotes_show(45271)'>10<\/a><\/sup> means the world&#8217;s remaining coal power stations will soon go under.\u00a0 While gas power stations are likely to stick around a while longer, they&#8217;re threatened by the falling cost of energy storage.<\/p>\r\n<h2>Batteries Became Cheaper<\/h2>\r\n<p>One and a half years ago Elon Musk said Tesla would produce battery <strong>cells<\/strong> under <a href=\"https:\/\/www.utilitydive.com\/news\/musk-says-tesla-can-get-li-ion-cell-prices-below-100kwh-this-year\/525162\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">$132 Australian per kilowatt-hour<\/a><sup class='endnote'><a href='https:\/\/www.solarquotes.com.au\/blog\/2020-in-review\/#en-45271-11' id='enref-45271-11' onclick='return hhEndnotes_show(45271)'>11<\/a><\/sup> by the end of 2018.<\/p>\r\n<p>He also promised the cost of cells combined into battery <strong>packs<\/strong> would be under $132 per kilowatt-hour before June 2020.\u00a0 But, strangely enough, when these dates rolled around Elon totally failed to point out how he&#8217;d been right.\u00a0 This uncharacteristic restraint, combined with the fact Tesla <a href=\"https:\/\/www.solarquotes.com.au\/blog\/tesla-powerwall-price-increase\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">increased Powerwall home battery prices<\/a>, makes me think he either exaggerated or failed.<\/p>\r\n<p>Fortunately, Tesla is not the only battery maker in town. \u00a0We have evidence from China that battery packs used in some electric buses are now <a href=\"https:\/\/about.bnef.com\/blog\/battery-pack-prices-cited-below-100-kwh-for-the-first-time-in-2020-while-market-average-sits-at-137-kwh\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">under $132 per kilowatt-hour<\/a>, while the market average for electric vehicle battery packs worldwide is around $180 per kilowatt-hour.\u00a0 By 2023 battery packs are expected to average around $133 per kilowatt-hour.\u00a0<\/p>\r\n<p>The low cost of battery storage means renewable energy isn&#8217;t just cheaper than fossil fuels when the sun shines, or the wind blows.\u00a0 It&#8217;s now <a href=\"https:\/\/reneweconomy.com.au\/bad-news-for-coal-india-lands-worlds-largest-super-cheap-solar-and-storage-tender-80682\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">cheaper<\/a> to instead use a combination of solar, wind, and energy storage to meet electricity demand.\u00a0 As one example, if the proposed <a href=\"https:\/\/www.solarquotes.com.au\/blog\/goyder-south-renewables-neoen-mb1651\/\">Goyder South Hybrid Renewable Energy Facility<\/a> in South Australia goes ahead, it may consist of:<\/p>\r\n<ul>\r\n<li>600 megawatts of solar panels.<\/li>\r\n<li>173 megawatts of wind turbines, and&#8230;<\/li>\r\n<li>1,800 megawatt-hours of battery storage that can supply 900 megawatts of power.\u00a0<\/li>\r\n<\/ul>\r\n<p>The battery alone could meet over one-quarter of the state&#8217;s peak grid electricity demand during a heatwave for two hours.\u00a0<\/p>\r\n<h2>EVs Ready To Roll<\/h2>\r\n<p>Around 2.3% of vehicles manufactured in 2019 were electric.\u00a0 In 2020 the estimate is 2.5%.\u00a0 While this makes it appear that EVs&#8217; total production increased, they actually fell due to the global pandemic.\u00a0 The percentage figure only increased because other vehicle production fell further.\u00a0 But when it comes to beating the competition, a percentage increase is still a win.<\/p>\r\n<p>Over half of new cars <a href=\"https:\/\/thedriven.io\/2020\/11\/08\/norways-ev-revolution-shows-us-the-urgency-of-government-action-on-transport\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">sold in Norway<\/a> this year were electric, and among the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=DQRYoPOCfA8\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer nofollow\">accursed<\/a> Dutch, it was 15%.\u00a0 When it comes to EV adoption, Australia is a little behind Norway, but only because we&#8217;re so far behind, we lapped the planet.<sup class='endnote'><a href='https:\/\/www.solarquotes.com.au\/blog\/2020-in-review\/#en-45271-12' id='enref-45271-12' onclick='return hhEndnotes_show(45271)'>12<\/a><\/sup>\u00a0 But EVs will take off here.\u00a0 Almost everyone with money will soon want one simply because their performance is so much better than comparatively priced internal combustion engine cars. Over time, they&#8217;ll become affordable for people who would normally only buy lower cost new cars.\u00a0 While some think current electric cars are too expensive for Australians, the median price of a new passenger vehicle last year was around $60,000, so it&#8217;s not as if no one can afford to buy them.\u00a0<\/p>\r\n<p>More EVs is useful because they&#8217;re energy storage on wheels.\u00a0 While they can supply power to the grid when needed, simply charging them when solar and\/or wind output is high helps integrate more renewables into the grid.<\/p>\r\n<h2>Coalition Coal Cock-up<\/h2>\r\n<p>The Federal Coalition has been in power for over seven years.\u00a0 In that time, they have:<\/p>\r\n<ul>\r\n<li>Reduced the Renewable Energy Target<\/li>\r\n<li>Axed the carbon price<\/li>\r\n<li>Promoted coal mining<\/li>\r\n<li>Promoted new coal power stations<\/li>\r\n<li>Tried to prevent coal power stations closing<\/li>\r\n<li>Worked to ensure the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.internationalaffairs.org.au\/australianoutlook\/coping-it-in-madrid-why-australias-stance-at-cop25-was-so-widely-condemned\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">failure<\/a> of international agreements on emissions.<\/li>\r\n<\/ul>\r\n<p>Back when he was the Treasurer, our current Prime Minister even took a lump of coal to Parliament and waved it around so the other Coalition members would be jealous of what Santa had stuffed in his stocking.\u00a0 The Coalition lives for coal.\u00a0 It&#8217;s just the rest of the world that dies for it.\u00a0<\/p>\r\n<p>While it is bad for Australia&#8217;s economy in the short term, I have to say the Coalition&#8217;s long term love-on for coal makes it kind of hilarious they have screwed up so badly that China no longer <a href=\"https:\/\/www.abc.net.au\/news\/2020-12-14\/global-times-reports-australian-coal-exports-blocked-by-china\/12983336\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">wants to buy it<\/a> from us.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\r\n<p>Due to current Sino-Australian trade bitchiness, Australian coal exports to the Middle Kingdom are a fraction of what they were.<sup class='endnote'><a href='https:\/\/www.solarquotes.com.au\/blog\/2020-in-review\/#en-45271-13' id='enref-45271-13' onclick='return hhEndnotes_show(45271)'>13<\/a><\/sup>\u00a0 While China is suffering from high coal prices and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.scmp.com\/economy\/china-economy\/article\/3115119\/china-suffers-worst-power-blackouts-decade-post-coronavirus\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">rolling blackouts<\/a>,<sup class='endnote'><a href='https:\/\/www.solarquotes.com.au\/blog\/2020-in-review\/#en-45271-14' id='enref-45271-14' onclick='return hhEndnotes_show(45271)'>14<\/a><\/sup> they prefer to put up with the pain in a pandemic damaged world economy rather than back down.\u00a0 If you&#8217;d told me just one year ago the Coalition would make such a colossal coal cock up they&#8217;d lose our second largest customer, I would never have believed it.\u00a0<\/p>\r\n<p>The coal shortage in China is hastening their transition to renewables while here it&#8217;s resulted in the delay and potential cancellation of coal mine expansions.\u00a0 So the government that loves coal has managed to harm Australian coal mining and caused irreparable damage to our largest coal export market.\u00a0<\/p>\r\n<p>If we got into this position due to bad luck or because we&#8217;d taken some moral stand, that would be one thing, but I&#8217;m afraid it was stupidity all the way.\u00a0 Scott Morrison decided to <a href=\"https:\/\/www.abc.net.au\/news\/2020-05-20\/wha-passes-coronavirus-investigation-australia-what-cost\/12265896\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">poke a bear<\/a> when it was in a particularly grumpy mood. Poking a bear when you&#8217;re an extra-large <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theshovel.com.au\/2020\/12\/15\/scott-morrisons-curry-addiction\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">curry-flavoured<\/a> snack in a suit is never a good idea.<\/p>\r\n<p>Worst of all, Morrison&#8217;s motive in making China mad appears solely to have been to get in the good graces of Donald Trump:<\/p>\r\n<ul>\r\n<li>A man who drops allies faster that you drop a Tinder date who turns up with your name carved into their face.\u00a0<\/li>\r\n<li>A politician who caves so easily he can be used to rescue Thai schoolboys.\u00a0<\/li>\r\n<li>A man as effective as Boris Johnson&#8217;s hairbrush<\/li>\r\n<li>A man more self-serving than a waiter practising in a mirror.<\/li>\r\n<li>A man so callous the United States hasn&#8217;t had a President whose actions have resulted in more needless deaths since two Presidents ago.\u00a0<\/li>\r\n<\/ul>\r\n<p>Maybe Morrison thought other countries would have his back, but they are pissed off with Australia&#8217;s inaction on climate change and have zero desire to intervene on behalf of coal exports.\u00a0 The Chinese Government clearly did not target coal at random.\u00a0 They are turning the screws to isolate Australia and maximize pain to our economy and embarrassment to the Coalition. \u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\r\n<p>In return for pushing for an inquiry into the origins of the coronavirus that probably would have gone ahead anyway, Scott Morrison received <a href=\"https:\/\/www.smh.com.au\/politics\/federal\/donald-trump-awards-scott-morrison-with-one-of-the-highest-military-honours-20201222-p56pmb.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">a nice medal<\/a> from Donald Trump:<\/p>\r\n<div id=\"attachment_46052\" style=\"width: 760px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><img decoding=\"async\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-46052\" class=\"wp-image-46052 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/www.solarquotes.com.au\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/12\/order_of_merit.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"750\" height=\"400\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.solarquotes.com.au\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/12\/order_of_merit.jpg 750w, https:\/\/www.solarquotes.com.au\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/12\/order_of_merit-300x160.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 750px) 100vw, 750px\" \/><p id=\"caption-attachment-46052\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">The US Order of Merit (Source: Medals of America.)<\/p><\/div>\r\n<p>The US Order of Merit is beautiful and sells for anything up to $500 on eBay.<\/p>\r\n<h2>Fossil Fuels Won&#8217;t Die Overnight &#8212; But It Will Happen<\/h2>\r\n<p>The days of fossil fuel generation are numbered.\u00a0 The bad news is those numbers are still fairly high.\u00a0 While wind and solar energy generation combined with battery storage will drive coal and then natural gas out of the electricity sector, it&#8217;s still going to take time.\u00a0 The good news is we can speed things up through our personal actions.<\/p>\r\n<p>Not only is Australia a representative democracy, but our culture is also materialistic and individualistic.\u00a0 Pretty much <a href=\"https:\/\/medium.com\/@TehEmile\/chinas-ultra-materialism-explained-781a7e63b75e\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">like<\/a> Chinese <a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=QWbOYeTrC90\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer nofollow\">culture<\/a>.\u00a0 This means we can pay to put goddamn <a href=\"https:\/\/www.solarquotes.com.au\/solar101.html\">solar panels on our roofs<\/a> if we want.\u00a0 The local grids don&#8217;t always have the capacity to export as much clean energy as <a href=\"https:\/\/www.solarquotes.com.au\/blog\/zero-kw-export-solar\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">we&#8217;d like<\/a>, but at least it&#8217;s possible to complain to our MPs about this without getting screws turned on us.\u00a0<\/p>\r\n<p>Fortunately for us, since big business is all about making bank, it now has no interest in new coal power in Australia and very little interest in new gas or diesel generating capacity.\u00a0 They know there is no money in it, and the future is renewables and energy storage, which will be the case around the world.<\/p>\r\n<p>At the moment, large scale solar and wind farm construction in Australia is constrained by transmission capacity, and it usually takes at least two years for new lines to be planned, approved, and built.\u00a0 But lower interest rates make new transmission cheaper, and it looks certain grids will have their long-distance transmission capacity beefed up considerably over the next few years.\u00a0 By the time that happens the cost of renewables and storage will have fallen even further.\u00a0 After the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.solarquotes.com.au\/blog\/kelly-liddell-renewables-mb0522\/\">Liddell Power Station<\/a> closes in 2023, Australia&#8217;s remaining coal capacity will be lining up for permission to shut down permanently.\u00a0<\/p>\r\n<p>While 2020 may have been a pretty crappy year, I think 2021 will be the start of a very optimistic decade.\u00a0<\/p>\r\n\n\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The year 2020 was wonderful except for one little thing, and it&#8217;s hard to get littler than a virus.\u00a0 Thank god Australia got off lightly compared to most.\u00a0<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":10,"featured_media":46083,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[54],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45271","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-solar-policy","entry"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v27.2 (Yoast SEO v27.2) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>2020 In Review: Fossil Fuel Industry Running On Fumes<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Thankfully, a COVID vaccine was developed in 2020. But there&#039;s no good news for the fossil fuel industry as renewables continue to soar.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.solarquotes.com.au\/blog\/2020-in-review\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"2020 In Review: Fossil Fuel Industry Running On Fumes\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Thankfully, a COVID vaccine was developed in 2020. But there&#039;s no good news for the fossil fuel industry as renewables continue to soar.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.solarquotes.com.au\/blog\/2020-in-review\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"SolarQuotes Blog\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/SolarQuotes\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2020-12-28T03:10:13+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2024-01-25T01:26:59+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.solarquotes.com.au\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/12\/2020-fuel.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1200\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"628\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Ronald Brakels\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@BrakelsRonald\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@solar_quotes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.solarquotes.com.au\/blog\/2020-in-review\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.solarquotes.com.au\/blog\/2020-in-review\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Ronald Brakels\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.solarquotes.com.au\/blog\/#\/schema\/person\/d0ce1779b3f5cb67cb4f146732af2fc7\"},\"headline\":\"2020 In Review: Fossil Fuel Industry Running On Fumes\",\"datePublished\":\"2020-12-28T03:10:13+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2024-01-25T01:26:59+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.solarquotes.com.au\/blog\/2020-in-review\/\"},\"wordCount\":3214,\"commentCount\":29,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.solarquotes.com.au\/blog\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.solarquotes.com.au\/blog\/2020-in-review\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.solarquotes.com.au\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/12\/2020-fuel.jpg\",\"articleSection\":[\"Solar Policy\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-AU\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"CommentAction\",\"name\":\"Comment\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/www.solarquotes.com.au\/blog\/2020-in-review\/#respond\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.solarquotes.com.au\/blog\/2020-in-review\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.solarquotes.com.au\/blog\/2020-in-review\/\",\"name\":\"2020 In Review: Fossil Fuel Industry Running On Fumes\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.solarquotes.com.au\/blog\/#website\"},\"primaryImageOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.solarquotes.com.au\/blog\/2020-in-review\/#primaryimage\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.solarquotes.com.au\/blog\/2020-in-review\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.solarquotes.com.au\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/12\/2020-fuel.jpg\",\"datePublished\":\"2020-12-28T03:10:13+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2024-01-25T01:26:59+00:00\",\"description\":\"Thankfully, a COVID vaccine was developed in 2020. 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