{"id":51112,"date":"2021-07-05T14:53:15","date_gmt":"2021-07-05T04:23:15","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.solarquotes.com.au\/blog\/?p=51112"},"modified":"2021-07-05T14:53:15","modified_gmt":"2021-07-05T04:23:15","slug":"solar-silicon-price-hike","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.solarquotes.com.au\/blog\/solar-silicon-price-hike\/","title":{"rendered":"Silicon Price Hike Increases Solar Panel Production Cost By Around $34"},"content":{"rendered":"\r\n

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Ninety-eight percent of the world’s solar cells are made from silicon.\u00a0 This is thanks to its suitability as a PV material and its low cost compared to alternatives.\u00a0 While the price of solar silicon has its ups and downs, the overall trend has been downwards.\u00a0 It reached a record low in June 2020.\u00a0 After taking inflation into account, it was around one-thirteenth of its 2007 price.\u00a0<\/p>\r\n

But the record low didn’t last, and over the past 12 months it has gone from under $7 US per kilogram to over $28 US.\u00a0 In relative terms, this has been the largest solar silicon price increase in history.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 <\/p>\r\n

Prices were low last year because massive new solar silicon production capacity had been built but demand was weak due to the pandemic-related worldwide economic slowdown.\u00a0 As demand has increased, so have solar silicon prices.\u00a0 This was mentioned by Michael in his recent article on Jinko Solar<\/a>.\u00a0<\/p>\r\n

A wide range of commodities including timber, iron ore, and copper has surged in price recently.\u00a0 This is a side-effect of the world’s current economic state and I don’t think it’s anything we should be too worried about.\u00a0 While supply and demand don’t always work in our favour, they are reliable and I expect them to sort things out given time.\u00a0 Worldwide pandemics are not normal, so we shouldn’t expect world markets to be normal either. \u00a0<\/p>\r\n

But because some people have gotten their knickers in a twist over the solar silicon price hike, I’ve decided to do two things:<\/p>\r\n

    \r\n
  1. Work out the amount of silicon<\/a> in a typical rooftop solar panel.<\/li>\r\n
  2. Use this to determine how much the hike in solar silicon price will add to the production cost of a solar panel.<\/li>\r\n<\/ol>\r\n

    Ups & Downs<\/h2>\r\n

    There are two basic types of silicon solar cells:<\/p>\r\n

      \r\n
    1. Monocrystalline:<\/strong>\u00a0 These cells are cut from a silicon ingot that’s one large crystal.\u00a0 It cost more but gives higher efficiency.<\/li>\r\n
    2. Multicrystalline<\/strong>:\u00a0 These cells are cut from an ingot containing multiple crystals of silicon.\u00a0 It’s cheaper than monocrystalline, but the cells have lower efficiency.<\/li>\r\n<\/ol>\r\n

      Most solar panels going on Australian roofs now have monocrystalline solar cells, but the raw material for monocrystalline and multicrystalline<\/a> cells is the same — high-quality polysilicon of at least 99.9999% purity.\u00a0 The graph below shows polysilicon prices since 1977.\u00a0 It’s in US dollars adjusted for inflation, so the prices are all in today’s money.\u00a0 It shows ups and downs, but the general trend has been down:<\/p>\r\n

      \"Price<\/p>\r\n

      The uptick at the end of the graph doesn’t look too bad, but it’s the largest relative increase in price over a year that has ever occurred.\u00a0 Prices almost doubled from June 2020 to the start of the year and have more than doubled since then:<\/p>\r\n

      \"Polysilicon<\/p>\r\n

      Because it’s the largest relative price hike ever, it’s easy to understand why it has caused some consternation.\u00a0 While an increase was expected, some are concerned the price will keep rising.\u00a0 One thing with the potential to kick prices higher is accidents at solar silicon production facilities in China — the country where almost all the solar silicon on our roofs comes from.\u00a0 They have a bad habit<\/a> of suffering explosions<\/a>.\u00a0<\/p>\r\n

      I assume these industrial accidents are the result of so much new capacity being built so quickly in a country with less focus on safety than our own.\u00a0 I don’t think it’s a natural feature of Chinese silicon plants, so hopefully there won’t be many more explosions before they get a handle on it.\u00a0<\/p>\r\n

      \"\"

      Fingers crossed.<\/p><\/div>\r\n

      How Much Silicon In A Panel?<\/h2>\r\n

      To be nitpicky, there’s a lot more silicon in the glass of a solar panel than in its solar cells, with glass being roughly 20% silicon by weight.\u00a0 There’s also silicon-based sealant between the panel and its frame.\u00a0 But this is not high-quality 99.9999% pure solar silicon.\u00a0 I’m only considering the high-cost stuff solar cells are made from.\u00a0<\/p>\r\n

      To work out how much solar silicon is in a panel I’ll need to know:<\/p>\r\n

        \r\n
      1. The thickness of modern solar cells.<\/li>\r\n
      2. How much area the cells in a typical solar panel cover.<\/li>\r\n
      3. How much silicon is wasted in manufacture.\u00a0<\/li>\r\n<\/ol>\r\n

        Thickness:\u00a0 <\/strong>The width of solar cells varies, but many are now only 160 micrometres<\/a> thick.\u00a0 That’s 0.16 mm and little more than twice the average thickness of a human hair.\u00a0<\/p>\r\n

        Area:\u00a0 <\/strong>Not long ago the standard size of a rooftop solar panel was 1.65m by 1m.\u00a0 But as they have crept up in size over the past year or two, I’ll now consider a panel 1.76 meters by 1.04 meters as typical for rooftop solar power systems.\u00a0 After allowing for the space taken up by frame edges and the little gaps between cells, I’ll assume the total solar cell surface area is 1.7 square metres.<\/p>\r\n

        Wastage:\u00a0 <\/strong>I don’t have any precise figures for silicon wastage in solar panel manufacturing.\u00a0 But after accounting for…<\/p>\r\n