{"id":784,"date":"2012-01-04T13:27:37","date_gmt":"2012-01-04T02:57:37","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.solarquotes.com.au\/blog\/?p=784"},"modified":"2017-10-25T10:31:52","modified_gmt":"2017-10-25T00:01:52","slug":"solar-power-forecast-for-2012","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.solarquotes.com.au\/blog\/solar-power-forecast-for-2012\/","title":{"rendered":"Solar Power Forecast for 2012: More stability, better forecasts, fewer conspiracies?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.solarquotes.com.au\/blog\/solar-power-forecast-for-2012\/attachment\/2012\/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-809\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-809\" title=\"2012\" src=\"https:\/\/www.solarquotes.com.au\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/01\/2012.jpg\" alt=\"solar to grow in 2012?\" width=\"500\" height=\"300\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.solarquotes.com.au\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/01\/2012.jpg 500w, https:\/\/www.solarquotes.com.au\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/01\/2012-300x180.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 500px) 100vw, 500px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>This year should be the year that renewables start to take off in Australia:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>We will have a carbon tax in place that will support renewable energy and overseas money is starting to flow in.<\/li>\n<li>Large scale solar is finding funding, following the trend from overseas.<\/li>\n<li>Chinese production of solar panels is bringing the cost of solar energy rapidly down towards that of fossil fuels.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>But there is one factor that governments, both federal and state, need to provide: <strong>stability<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<p>The solar industry needs to sense that financial support given in one year won\u2019t be withdrawn the next when the going gets tough or when a newly-elected government reverses the previous government\u2019s solar policy just because they can.<\/p>\n<p>Certainly in the case of solar energy the governments\u2019 efforts to forecast costs got an \u201cF\u201d grade this year. In a New Year\u2019s resolution that we think makes complete sense, the Australian Solar Energy Society (AuSES) has promised to carefully watch over the government\u2019s solar forecasting in 2012 on behalf of the nation\u2019s solar industry. Reading between the lines it seems AuSES is none too pleased with the end-of-year report card for government forecasting agencies.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cAs a national voice for Australia\u2019s solar industry, the Australian Solar Energy Society has made a New Year\u2019s resolution: to work more closely with Government agencies to ensure there\u2019s no repeat of the 2011 solar forecast mistakes,\u201d the society said in a recent release.<\/p>\n<p>This brings an image of government forecasters sitting in class rooms watched over by AuSES teachers. The solar forecasters, gazing out into the playground where their fellow \u00a0number crunchers are all playing, before looking down and writing: \u201cI must not bugger up the solar forecasts again\u201d 100 times.<\/p>\n<p>Am I being too harsh here? After all a forecast is just as it states: a forecast. But surely it should have some relation to the outcomes?<\/p>\n<p>The AuSES release points to four key areas where forecasts had to be speedily revised to bring them to within a bull\u2019s roar of real outcomes.<\/p>\n<p>1. The Productivity Commission\u2019s overstating of the cost of solar subsidies per tonne of CO2, forcing it to revise down the cost of solar subsidies from $431-$1041 to $177-$497.<\/p>\n<p>2. The Energy White Paper, released by the federal government, which overstated solar\u2019s cost by a factor of three.<\/p>\n<p>3. The Treasury Department\u2019s estimate that the country would have around 9 gigawatts of solar by 2050. However 1.2 gigawatts has already been installed, with yearly installations increasing ten fold since 2009.<\/p>\n<p>4. The NSW Government, led by Barry \u201cThe Terminator\u201d O\u2019Farrell, forced to revise the cost of the state\u2019s solar bonus scheme down by nearly a quarter.<\/p>\n<p>Hardly inspiring is it? No wonder AuSES chief executive John Grimes described 2011 as \u201ca horrible year for government solar forecasting\u201d. And why are the forecasts always so against the interests of the solar industry? Is the reason for the solar forecasting simply the innocent result of a culture of excessive drinking and partying in our state and federal capitals? Or are there other motives at work?<\/p>\n<p>There you go folks, a nice little conspiracy theory to kick off the year. Wishing you all a safe, happy and productive New Year.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>This year should be the year that renewables start to take off in Australia: We will have a carbon tax in place that will support renewable energy and overseas money is starting to flow in. Large scale solar is finding funding, following the trend from overseas. Chinese production of solar panels is bringing the cost [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":19,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[54],"tags":[36,30,55],"class_list":["post-784","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-solar-policy","tag-australia","tag-feed-in-tariffs","tag-nsw","entry"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v27.2 (Yoast SEO v27.2) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Solar Power Forecast for 2012<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Australian solar 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2011","format":false,"excerpt":"Last week we examined the point of view of academic Mark Diesendorf who stated that the much villified carbon tax will probably be insufficient to encourage renewable energy investment in Australia. This week we look at the opposing view and find that overseas renewable energy companies are indeed putting their\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Solar Policy&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Solar Policy","link":"https:\/\/www.solarquotes.com.au\/blog\/category\/solar-policy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":3106,"url":"https:\/\/www.solarquotes.com.au\/blog\/will-solar-energy-australia-takes-cue-overseas-2014\/","url_meta":{"origin":784,"position":1},"title":"Will solar power in Australia take its cue from overseas in 2014?","author":"Staff Writer","date":"December 16, 2013","format":false,"excerpt":"A US-centred news article that made your correspondent sit up and take notice this week in the SQHQ bunker came via the excellent RenewableEnergyWorld. The piece summarised a recent report from by GTM Research and the Solar Energy Industries Association (SEIA) in the US, that reported massive growth in solar\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Solar Policy&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Solar Policy","link":"https:\/\/www.solarquotes.com.au\/blog\/category\/solar-policy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"us flag on a solar panel","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.solarquotes.com.au\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/12\/us-solar.jpg?resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.solarquotes.com.au\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/12\/us-solar.jpg?resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.solarquotes.com.au\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/12\/us-solar.jpg?resize=525%2C300 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":626,"url":"https:\/\/www.solarquotes.com.au\/blog\/clean-energy-council-puts-roadmap-in-governments-solar-glovebox\/","url_meta":{"origin":784,"position":2},"title":"Clean Energy Council Puts Roadmap in Government\u2019s Solar Glovebox","author":"Staff Writer","date":"September 12, 2011","format":false,"excerpt":"By Rich Bowden It\u2019s a no-brainer right? Australia is one of the most blessed countries in the world with regard to availability of solar power and solar intensity. We, along with the United States, are considered to have the greatest potential for the exploitation of solar energy in the world.\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Big Solar&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Big Solar","link":"https:\/\/www.solarquotes.com.au\/blog\/category\/utility-scale-solar\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.solarquotes.com.au\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/09\/solar_fellas.png?resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":4456,"url":"https:\/\/www.solarquotes.com.au\/blog\/et-solar-panels-win-government-support\/","url_meta":{"origin":784,"position":3},"title":"ET Solar Panels win government support","author":"Staff Writer","date":"February 4, 2015","format":false,"excerpt":"What do ET Solar Australia and the Clean Energy Finance Corporation (CEFC) have up their sleeves to promote ET solar panels for large commercial businesses in our country? There\u2019s more than one way to skin a cat. And more than one model for financing solar energy. This was amply demonstrated\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Economics Of Solar&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Economics Of Solar","link":"https:\/\/www.solarquotes.com.au\/blog\/category\/economics\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"commercial solar installation","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.solarquotes.com.au\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/02\/et_plus_cefc.jpg?resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.solarquotes.com.au\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/02\/et_plus_cefc.jpg?resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.solarquotes.com.au\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/02\/et_plus_cefc.jpg?resize=525%2C300 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":2832,"url":"https:\/\/www.solarquotes.com.au\/blog\/positives-solar-power-australia-new-federal-government\/","url_meta":{"origin":784,"position":4},"title":"Any positives for solar power under the new Coalition government?","author":"Staff Writer","date":"September 9, 2013","format":false,"excerpt":"Here at SQHQ \u2014 as with all of those supporting alternative energy \u2014 we\u2019re surveying the damage after the Coalition's expected yet stunning landslide win on Saturday night. Both the Liberals and Nationals took a slash and burn approach to solar power in Australia and the whole renewable energy sector\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Solar Policy&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Solar Policy","link":"https:\/\/www.solarquotes.com.au\/blog\/category\/solar-policy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"How will solar fare under Abbott and the Coalition?","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.solarquotes.com.au\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/09\/solar-election.jpg?resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":55081,"url":"https:\/\/www.solarquotes.com.au\/blog\/solar-disconnect-curtailment-wa-mb2204\/","url_meta":{"origin":784,"position":5},"title":"Remote Rooftop Solar Power Management For WA&#8217;s SWIS","author":"Michael Bloch","date":"October 21, 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"Energy Policy WA has kicked off a discussion on the introduction of remote rooftop solar management capability for new installations in Western Australia - and it could be introduced quite soon. Western Australians love solar power. As in other states, this is creating some challenges in WA's South-West Interconnected System\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;General Solar &amp; Storage News&quot;","block_context":{"text":"General Solar &amp; Storage News","link":"https:\/\/www.solarquotes.com.au\/blog\/category\/solar-battery-news\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Remote solar disconnection in Western Australia","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.solarquotes.com.au\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/10\/remote-disconnect-wa.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.solarquotes.com.au\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/10\/remote-disconnect-wa.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.solarquotes.com.au\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/10\/remote-disconnect-wa.jpg?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.solarquotes.com.au\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/10\/remote-disconnect-wa.jpg?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.solarquotes.com.au\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/10\/remote-disconnect-wa.jpg?resize=1050%2C600&ssl=1 3x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.solarquotes.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/784","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.solarquotes.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.solarquotes.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.solarquotes.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/19"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.solarquotes.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=784"}],"version-history":[{"count":19,"href":"https:\/\/www.solarquotes.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/784\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":3272,"href":"https:\/\/www.solarquotes.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/784\/revisions\/3272"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.solarquotes.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=784"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.solarquotes.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=784"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.solarquotes.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=784"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}