Australia’s Cheaper Home Batteries Program (CHBP) is going gangbusters. So much so, updated SolarQuotes analysis suggests the subsidy party could be over *much* sooner rather than later without intervention. But there’s good news.
How Much Funding Does The Battery Rebate Have?
The Cheaper Home Batteries Program was launched with $2.3 billion in funding. The program is supported through the federal government purchasing Small-Scale Technology Certificates (STCs) — on which the subsidy is based — to finance the rebates.
How Many Batteries Have Been Installed?
Federal Minister for Climate Change and Energy Chris Bowen provided an update yesterday on installation numbers when delivering a speech to COP30 in Belem, Brazil.
“… over 125,000 households have now installed batteries since 1 July, thanks to our Cheaper Home Batteries program,” Bowen said. “That’s 1000 households each and every day installing a battery.”
Well, very close to it anyway. But back on November 1, the Minister put the tally at just over 108,000; so the rate over the last couple of weeks would be around 1,000 a day.
While the Clean Energy Regulator’s figures only show 90,546 systems, that’s for installations that are done, dusted and STCs have been issued up until 31 October. It doesn’t include installed systems with STCs still pending — which I assume Minister Bowen is factoring in.
Minister Bowen promoting Labor’s Cheaper Home Batteries program earlier this year.
How Long Will The Battery Rebate Last?
According to updated analysis carried out by SolarQuotes’ resident fact-checker, Ronald Brakels:
“Using the 90,546 installs in the first 4 months costing ~$678 million, then the scheme will last a total of 13.6 months and end some time around the middle of August next year. This assumes all the $2.3 billion goes in rebates and there are no administration or other costs.”
But Bowen’s 125,000+ installs so far is 21% higher.
“Using his figure, with the same assumption that the money all goes to rebates, the scheme will last a total of 11.2 months and end in early June next year.
If installations next year average 20% higher than they have so far, which definitely seems possible, then the first $2.3 billion will run out after a little more than 10 months and will be gone sometime in May.”
In the very early days of the scheme before it became apparent just how popular it would be, Ronald’s initial number-crunching found the CHBP could run out of money by early 2028 — still well before the program’s planned 2030 end date — unless adjustments were made.
But in addition to the tsunami of installations that followed, something else that’s also happened is average useable capacity of batteries is increasing, and the level of rebate is pegged to useable battery capacity.
Ronald’s original calculations were based on an average 17 kWh useable capacity per system, which was already higher than the average pre-rebate. But based on recent data from the Clean Energy Regulator, average capacity over the short life of the program so far is 20 kWh; and likely still increasing.
Changes to the program are now looking far more urgent in order to sustain it.
What Changes Can Be Made To Extend It?
Well, more funding for one – and that’s quite possible. Smart Energy Council CEO John Grimes recently stated:
“The good news is that this program is uncapped. That means $2.3 billion is the first payment, not the last payment.”
But let’s say it is, or the program needs to be reined in further beyond the already scheduled annual rebate reduction.
Ronald says:
“One way to stretch out the federal battery rebate is to reduce the battery capacity that receives STCs. The number could be cut in half from 50 to 25kWh, while doing little harm to typical households. But the maximum that can be installed should be kept at 100kWh, since we don’t want to discourage people from installing more if they want.
But there are advantages to people installing large 40-50 kWh home batteries. These big batteries can keep homes powered through long periods of bad weather without any need to draw on grid power at a time when the grid may be under stress.”
Treading Carefully
Ronald warns too much tinkering with the CHBP could have negative results.
“Making the scheme more complex to try to encourage the installation of perfect battery systems can do more harm than good,” he says. “Done poorly, it could increase the number of ways the rules could be abused. We may get better results just by requiring installers to inform homeowners of drawbacks of doing things such as installing a huge battery capacity with a small inverter.”
Don’t Panic!
While Ronald’s updated analysis may trigger some potential battery buyers to get a wriggle on; it’s a significant purchase that shouldn’t be rushed into. It’s not just your cash at risk, but also the safety of your household — and it’s an acquisition you’ll be living with for a long time for better or for worse; so ensure it’s the former.
At this point, it’s unlikely you’ll be able to get a system installed over the next couple of months anyway as installers are flat out. It’s an opportunity learn everything you need to know about choosing the right home battery (and installer). And to stay up to date with what’s happening, subscribe to the SolarQuotes weekly newsletter.
About Michael Bloch
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I found that the economics is now driven by expensive inverter + cheap cells = scale up capacity with a modular battery.
So I went 48kWh and 15kW as that was the best deployment of retirement capital and lowest LCOS. Spare capacity galore to soak up those grid-melting moments!
But if it is driven by politics, i.e. how many votes can be bought with $$ rather than how much capacity goes to the support the market, then smaller batteries would be the order of the day.
Let’s see what they do.
Thanks for the alarm bells on the CHBP “running out”- but let’s pump the brakes. The scheme isn’t a one-and-done federal piggy bank; it’s built to roll over like solar PV’s STC model, where a tiny levy on grid electricity (passed to retailers then in-turn consumers) keeps the certificates flowing indefinitely. No cliff-edge exhaustion here, just a seamless handoff from general revenue kickstart to consumer-funded sustainability.
That $2.3B is the booster rocket and is great for now, but if demand stays hot (and it is, with 125k+ installs already), expect tweaks: maybe the government will cap subsidies at 25kWh (or worse, 15kWh) to stretch it, with tapered rebates above. Mid-2026 top-up? Likely, per Bowen’s hints.
Better idea: Mandate solar minimums for rebates—6.6kW panels for ≤20kWh batteries, scaling to minimum 13.3kW + 10kW inverter for bigger ones (grid-approved). Maximizes self-use, eases grid strain, and turns “running out” into “ramping up.” Who’s with me?
Michael’s article makes it clear that the scheme could indeed be topped up and adjusted to reduce the cap on battery sizes. But the $2.3bn was envisioned to cover the forward estimates period through to mid-2029, so we’re clearly going to exhaust that funding pool much earlier than planned.
I’ll have to keep an eye on it, i want to add another 20kwh to my system (original battery from just before the scheme was introduced) , but i am in no hurry, waiting for things to settle a bit and see how my usage goes over 12 months to be sure.
Yes, this is one bright spot for Labor and I can’t see them allowing the program to end early due to funds running out.
I agree with the 25kWh limit That should be more than ample for most households.