We could all do with some good news – but unfortunately the Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change didn’t deliver it.
In a nutshell, things are going to shit and there’s a lot of damage already locked in.
“Global warming of 1.5°C and 2°C will be exceeded during the 21st century unless deep reductions in carbon dioxide (CO2) and other greenhouse gas emissions occur in the coming decades.”
It’s now expected the 1.5°C mark will be exceeded before 2040, so this is not a problem that will be left for future generations to endure. The impacts are here and now and will only increase unless we collectively pull our fingers out.
The full report, which can be downloaded here, is more than 3,900 pages. An Australasia-specific regional fact sheet based on the report notes the following with very high or high confidence:
- Australian land areas have warmed by around 1.4°C between ~1910 and 2020.
- Annual temperature changes have emerged above natural variability in all land regions.
- Heat extremes have increased, cold extremes have decreased, and both are projected to continue.
- Relative sea level rose at a rate higher than the global average in recent decades.
- The intensity, frequency and duration of fire weather events are projected to increase throughout Australia.
- An increase in marine heatwaves and ocean acidity is observed and projected.
.. and so on.
Taylor – Australia Playing Its Part
So, it’s all looking rather grim. But a press release from Minister for Energy and Emissions Reduction Angus Taylor released late yesterday assures us Australia is a lifter, not a leaner.
“Australia is committed to achieving net zero emissions as soon as possible, and preferably by 2050, and to meeting and exceeding our 2030 commitment, as we already have with our 2020 targets.”
As soon as possible? Preferably? It doesn’t really inspire confidence.
“When it comes to emissions reduction, our record is one of delivery and achievement that Australians can be proud of.”
Perhaps Minister Taylor is working on the premise that if you repeat something often enough, people will believe it.
But many aren’t.
Greenpeace: “Act Now, You Idiots!”
Greenpeace Australia Pacific certainly doesn’t.
“No more excuses and no more delays on climate change,” said David Ritter, CEO of Greenpeace Australia Pacific. “This is decision time for every political and business leader in Australia. This is the issue on which you will be judged by history and by the children of Australia, whose futures are on the line.”
Among other things, Greenpeace is calling for the closure of all coal burning power stations by 2030 at the latest. At this point in time, we’ll still be burning coal for power generation through to 2048.
Greens: 2030 Targets “A Death Sentence”
Greens Leader Adam Bandt said the IPCC report shows the Morrison Government’s 2030 targets are a “death sentence for Australia”.
“After this report, failure to lift 2030 targets is criminal negligence,” said Mr. Bandt. “The rest of the world understands that if we don’t do more by 2030, we all go over the climate cliff, so the Liberals’ 2030 denial and Labor’s 2030 silence are putting Australian lives at risk.”
CEC – Net Zero A Priority, Not A Preference
The Clean Energy Council points out the IPCC report indicates net-zero emissions by 2050 should be a priority, not a preference.
“Australia has tremendous potential to produce low-cost electricity from renewables which can power the country and the world, and we must lean into the clean energy transition, not seek to hold back the tide,” said CEC CEO Kane Thornton. “When the upside of taking action is so good for jobs, the economy and the environment, why would we delay?”
And just on that note, some might like to think we’re doing pretty well in Australia in terms of a clean energy transition – particularly given the uptake of solar power systems by millions of Australian households and businesses. But according to new research published yesterday by the Australia Institute’s Climate & Energy Program, we’re lagging behind many countries. It claims Australia’s reliance on fossil fuel for energy has in fact risen since 2005.
Climate Council – A Massive Wake-Up Call For Australia
Based on the IPCC report, the Climate Council is recommending Australia slash its emissions by 75% (below 2005 levels) by 2030 and achieve net zero emissions by 2035.
“No political leader or decision maker reading this landmark report will be able to claim they were unaware of the profound threat we face,” said Climate Council spokesman Professor Will Steffen.
Here’s hoping Minister Taylor does so – even just this much more manageable 42-page Summary For Policy Makers could be a good place to start.
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The IPCC AR6 Working Group 1 dealing with the physical science basis of climate change extended the literature cutoff date, from 30 September 2020 in the original Working Group I schedule to 31 January 2021.
https://www.ipcc.ch/2020/05/29/ipcc-extends-working-group-i-literature-cut-off-date-postpones-final-lead-author-meeting/
That suggests to me that the Earth System Dynamics (ESD) paper titled “Climate model projections from the Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) of CMIP6”, published on 1 March 2021, probably missed the cutoff, and is thus not incorporated in the latest IPCC report released yesterday.
The ESD paper shows in Table 1 that crossing the +1.5°C global mean warming threshold (relative to Holocene Epoch pre-industrial age) is now INEVITABLE and will likely occur BEFORE 2030, irrespective of any measures humanity takes globally to reduce emissions in the interim.
https://esd.copernicus.org/articles/12/253/2021/esd-12-253-2021.pdf
It seems to me the IPCC continues to engage in “scholar reticence and caution”, as David Spratt and Ian Dunlop call it, overestimating the remaining carbon budget, and underestimating the rate of warming. There’s no carbon budget remaining for a safe climate for humanity.
https://www.breakthroughonline.org.au/nz2050
The compelling scientific evidence I see indicates governments (at all levels) that continue to encourage, assist and approve more fossil fuel projects are contributing to facilitating the collapse of human civilisation and consequent suffering and deaths of billions of people in the coming decades.
Leaders and policymakers that are still denying human-caused climate change and the role of greenhouse gases are a danger to society and all future generations.
https://www.solarquotes.com.au/blog/iea-global-emissions-mb2085/#comment-1154308
“ All it takes for the world’s climate to go poopy in its pants, is for good men and women to do nothing “.
That’s what is happening now! The problem is politicised, weaponised and just studied and talked about! Action is close to zero. For tangible change to occur, action is needed NOW and dramatic action at that! Australia is geographically in a highly fortunate location for solar power uptake and use. Singapore has already recognised this to the tune of a several billion investment, to run solar power from our country to theirs! That’s brave! How about we recognise it as well and power our larger population centres. All we need is reliable batteries and upgrades to infrastructure, some of which should still be usable.
Ambitious? Sure! Doable? Absolutely! I think that this should be our course of action.
The mistake many people have made is, they thought that the temperature graph would be a straight line, rising gradually. Turns out, it’s a parabolic curve rising exponentially! In other words, the 1.5-2 degree rise we were looking at by 2100 , could be to stay by as early as 2030-2035!
I have predicted this in other words 30 years ago, when a change in the right direction would have been much easier. Most people I spoke to at the time had a bit of a laugh and thought that I had fallen out of my tree. However even then, I already made changes in my lifestyle, such as changing light bulbs to cfc’s and later led’s when they became available. Three years ago I put a decent sized pv system on my roof and as soon as I can afford it, I’ll add batteries to it.
The fact that many Australians now own pv’s, is a step in the right direction and must be encouraged. Taxing us for the ‘privilege’, putting us in a class of haves, compared to have nots, is not the answer! Making it more affordable for the ‘ have nots’ sounds much better. The idea of substituting energy bills for over repayment is a good idea in my opinion and our government can get together with energy providers and lose some sleep over it!
This is possibly a way to reach our climate targets sooner and any government would do well to have a taskforce to make that happen. If they can’t, then we need a government that can!
China contributes a third of all global emissions yet nobody seems to be pressuring Beijing to take action. Why not? Frankly until this is addressed calls for Australia to act are beyond ridiculous – Australia is 135th out of 185 countries for emissions per square mile.
As for a 1.4C rise in roughly 100 years, so? Travel a few miles up or down the coast and you’ll see that same level of temperature difference. It’s negligible. Now if you’re talking 10 degrees that might be relevant.
More of a concern is predicted changes in weather – rainfall, seasons etc, but frankly wise civil engineering will mitigate a lot of this. One farmer whose property I toured several years ago showed off a small lake\dam he’d built on his property. Brilliant idea and something that allows him to operate whilst his neighbours are drought affected. Why don’t other farmers undertake similar measures? Because green tape prohibits them from saving excess rainfall for leaner times. What if state governments invested in other lateral options for handling weather variability? Store excess rain for dry seasons, keep construction out of flood zones, require high levels of insulation to limit thermal transfer etc.
Sydney mean temperature is 19.5 degrees.
Cairns is 1,100 miles north of Sydney.
A temperature increase of 1.4 degrees “every few miles” would make the mean temperature at Cairns 530 degrees.