Solar Polysilicon Price Check: Big Drops In December

After some slow easing in polysilicon prices starting in the latter half of this year, December has seen significant further drops for the sought-after material that plays such an important role in the solar power industry.

Polysilicon is used in the manufacture of a bunch of items, including the cells that make up a conventional solar panel. In recent years the cheapest polysilicon has been was below USD $7/kg in July 2020. But pandemic impacts and other unrelated events piled on, which saw spot prices skyrocket.

In August this year, spot prices reached around US$39.10 per kg, due in part to drought and heatwave conditions impacting manufacturing in China. Since that time, the situation has improved – and markedly in December. Research firm Bernreuter pegged the global polysilicon spot price average at US$30.79 per kg as at December 28.

But it seems it’s not unusual for prices to drop this time of year. Bernreuter notes:

“In November, or December at the latest, the polysilicon spot price usually begins to weaken after the procurement for the year-end PV installation rally has been done.”

Around the same time in 2021, the average spot price noted by Bernreuter was US$32.00 per kg. Just a few weeks earlier, the average was around US$36.60, the highest for the year.

Polysilicon Prices In 2023?

Looking ahead for the very short-term, the firm says indications are “the price collapse will remain in full swing next week.” Beyond that is anyone’s guess at this point. Average spot prices began creeping up very early in 2022 and after a small dip between April and June, restarted their ascent with more vigour until late August.

There’s a lot of new polysilicon production capacity in the pipeline, which could help things – but there always is. It’s the stuff out of left-field that can really throw a spanner in the works for prices. I’ve somewhat given up on reading longer-term predictions.

How Much Silicon In A Solar Panel?

Back in 2020, I took a stab at a calculating how much silicon is in a solar panel and came up with around 660 grams. Ronald arrived at a figure of around 1.3 kilograms, but that included wastage. Those calculations probably need revisiting as ongoing manufacturing improvements mean more can be done with less; but solar panels have also become more powerful.

While polysilicon pricing has an impact on the cost of solar panels, it’s not something really worth watching as a solid indicator for when to pull the trigger on pursuing a solar power system installation. If the past few years should have taught us anything, it’s to expect the unexpected.

Waiting for all the stars to perfectly align before making a decision to start getting ready for a solar power system installation is just locking in electricity bills higher than they would otherwise be for longer – and any savings that *might* be gained, lost.

Given we live in a world of so much uncertainty, the best time to go solar is usually right now.