Proposed Heat Pump Standard May Not Filter All The Junk

Buying a heat pump hot water system means wading through impressive-looking efficiency claims that aren’t always easy to compare.

Proposed federal government rules aim to change that by introducing a minimum efficiency standard for heat pump water heaters sold in Australia.

But a minimum efficiency standard doesn’t necessarily guarantee a good heat pump. So what will these rules actually achieve?

Will The New Rules Get Rid Of Bad Heat Pumps?

The proposed rules deal primarily with energy efficiency. They won’t guarantee that a heat pump is reliable, quiet, easy to repair, or backed by decent customer service. Nor can they rescue a bad installation.

SolarQuotes contributor and heat pump specialist Tim Johnston puts it plainly: “The issue with poor heat pumps is reliability.”

These rules aim to establish a clear performance baseline, helping homeowners feel more confident when comparing products and trusting their choices.

There’s a particular reason the government wants to establish that floor now. Australia already has something resembling a minimum efficiency standard for heat pump water heaters, but it’s tied to a rebate that’s gradually disappearing.

The STC Safety Net Is Disappearing

Heat pump water heaters don’t currently have a mandatory national Minimum Energy Performance Standard (MEPS).

However, to qualify for Small-scale Technology Certificates (STCs), heat pump water heaters have effectively had to clear an energy-efficiency hurdle. The government describes this as a “de facto MEPS”.

The problem is that STCs are winding down towards 2030.

As the incentive shrinks, so does the commercial value of qualifying for it. The government is concerned that this could eventually open the door to cheaper, less efficient products.

The proposed regulations would turn that temporary, rebate-driven efficiency floor into a permanent legal requirement. But how high will the government set the bar?

Setting The Efficiency Bar At COP 2.0

The proposed minimum is a coefficient of performance (COP) of 2.0 under the government’s prescribed test.

In simple terms, a COP of 2 means the water heater delivers two units of heat for every unit of electrical energy it consumes.

If you’ve looked at heat pumps advertising COPs of 4, 5, or even higher, that 2.0 minimum might sound extraordinarily low. That’s because it isn’t an apples-to-apples comparison.

COP figures aren’t necessarily apples-to-apples. iStore (top image) quotes 4.8 at 20°C ambient, while Sanden (bottom image) quotes 5.96 at 32.45°C. Both state their test conditions, but the numbers aren’t directly comparable.

Manufacturers can quote COP under particular operating conditions. The proposed standard instead uses a prescribed 24-hour hot-water cycle at an ambient temperature of 9°C. This measures the performance of the complete system, including the effects of tank heat loss and standby energy consumption.

An advertised COP of 4.5, therefore, doesn’t mean a heat pump beats the proposed minimum by more than double.

Standardised testing should give us a more consistent picture of efficiency. But there’s another question: will the minimum of 2.0 actually exclude many of the heat pumps homeowners would be better off avoiding?

A Low Bar Won’t Necessarily Catch The Duds

Heat pump specialist Tim Johnston doesn’t expect the proposed minimum to remove poor products from the market.

He says some lower-end units advertise exceptionally high COPs because they’re tested under favourable conditions. He expects those figures to fall substantially short of the proposed test, but still believes the units will meet the minimum.

“It’s a very low bar. This comes down to ‘any heat pump is better than no heat pump’ because they are inherently superior and more efficient.”

But Johnston argues that efficiency is only part of the picture.

“The counter to ‘any heat pump is better than no heat pump’ is a heat pump that lasts 3 years and needs to be replaced. We need them to last.”

For Johnston, the problem with poor heat pumps is often reliability rather than efficiency alone. Customer service is another common shortfall.

That might sound like a disappointing outcome. But removing products from the market isn’t the only way the regulations could help consumers make better choices.

Apples With Apples

The proposed rules would also require suppliers to provide standardised figures for COP, maximum usable hot-water volume, heating capacity, and full reheat time.

At present, comparing those sorts of claims between manufacturers can be difficult because they’re not necessarily based on the same test conditions.

Under the proposed system, everyone has to run the same race.

Johnston sees this as a more promising aspect of the changes.

“It’s definitely a step in the right direction. I think it will be easier for consumers to interrogate these false claims of ‘world-leading efficiency.’ Standardised tests will make it easier to compare, and while poorer units won’t be removed from the market, perhaps they will be easier to spot.”

Different test conditions don’t automatically make an existing manufacturer’s claim misleading. Both products in our comparison above, for example, disclose the conditions behind their figures. The difficulty is comparing the numbers directly when those conditions differ.

A common testing method should make it easier to judge performance without having to decipher the fine print in two different specification sheets.

It won’t, however, introduce an Energy Rating star sticker for heat pumps just yet. More comprehensive consumer labelling is being considered for a later stage, potentially around 2028.

When Do The New Rules Start?

There’s no firm date yet.

The exposure draft is open for public consultation until 5 October 2026. Once feedback has been considered, the government intends to make the final determination on the Greenhouse and Energy Minimum Standards (GEMS).

The requirements would commence 12 months after the determination is registered, with a limited transition period for existing stock.

So this isn’t an overnight clean-out of Australia’s heat pump market.

The proposed standard should preserve an efficiency floor as STCs disappear, while standardised performance figures could make poorer products easier to identify.

It won’t filter out every dud, but it should give homeowners a better idea of what they’re buying.

If you’re considering switching, our SolarQuotes heat pump hot water guide explains what to look for when choosing a system and how much you can expect to pay.